BREAKING: Stears Poll Predicts Next Nigeria President is Peter Obi.
The top-rated Nigerian intelligence company, Stears, has released its latest public opinion poll results for the 2023 presidential election cycle.
According to the poll, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, is the most universally-accepted candidate in the race.
The poll analysis, based on the largest sample size in Nigerian polling history with over 6,200 participants, showed that Peter Obi achieved at least 25% of the vote in five out of six geopolitical zones among declared voters.
Compared to other polls, the Stears poll solves the limitation of high proportions of silent voters, who do not declare their candidate preference. The proprietary model of Stears was able to predict the most likely candidate for these silent voters, assigning 43% of their votes to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All-Progressive candidate. Despite this, Peter Obi still leads all other candidates when both declared and predicted votes are counted.
Other key findings from the Stears poll include the fact that Nigerians vote along religious lines, although they are not willing to admit it.
The only region where Peter Obi did not secure 25% of the vote was the North-West, where the presence of Rabiu Kwankwaso resulted in an evenly split vote.
Kwara State was identified as a swing state and has accurately predicted the results of each presidential election since 1999.
In a scenario of low voter turnout, Bola Tinubu was predicted to win the election.
Other Polls Conducted So Far
ANAP polls conducted between September and December 2022 twice had shown that Obi is ahead of other frontline candidates. Also, just a few days ago, the Nextier Poll also predicted a Peter Obi win.
What makes the Stears poll different from other polls
Over 6200 Nigerians were polled, making it the Nigerian poll with the largest sample size, offline.
Also, Stears solved a problem that has been a limitation on all other previous polls, making truly a groundbreaking poll
Explaining this problem now solved, Michael Famoroti, Head of Intelligence & Co-Founder at Stears, said, “simple analysis of the poll results puts Peter Obi in the lead with 27% of all votes, ahead of Bola Ahmed Tinubu (15%) and Atiku Abubakar (12%).
“This is aligned with the results of other polls; however, it is hard to draw definite conclusions without examining the large portion of respondents who do not provide a candidate preference—a proportion as high as 50% in previously released polls.
“Where other polls have been inconclusive due to the large share of silent voters, Stears’ proprietary model is able to provide answers by predicting the most likely candidate for silent voters.”
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